Population projections for Canada, provinces and territories, 2024 to 2074

Released: 2025-01-21

Characterized by a pandemic, record-low fertility levels and substantial changes in the number of immigrants and non-permanent residents admitted to the country, Canada's demographics have experienced rapid changes over the last few years. In an effort to consider the potential impacts of these changes on the future evolution of the Canadian population, today Statistics Canada releases a new edition of its population projections for Canada (2024 to 2074), provinces and territories (2024 to 2049).

This new edition takes as its starting point the Canadian population as estimated on July 1, 2024, and takes into account the most recent trends in Canada's demography, such as the Immigration Plan released by Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada in November 2024. While recent trends were taken into account in these new population projections, the longer-term targets used to develop assumptions for each component of population growth—fertility, mortality, international and interprovincial migration—were unchanged from the previous edition of the projections, released in June 2024.

It is very important to note that Statistics Canada's population projections are not predictions. The utility of population projections lies in their timeliness, giving decision-makers and planners an essential tool for planning for the future today. Given that the particulars of this future remain uncertain, several projection scenarios are proposed, allowing users to consider a number of possible future evolutions.

The Canadian population could exceed 59 million by 2074

According to the projection scenarios, the Canadian population, estimated at 40.3 million in 2024, would continue to grow in the coming decades to reach between 45.2 million (low-growth scenario) and 80.8 million (high-growth scenario) by 2074.

According to the medium-growth scenario, the Canadian population would reach 59.3 million in 2074. In the short term, a substantial reduction in the number of permanent residents admitted to the country, as well as a decrease in the number of non-permanent residents, would result in much lower population growth than that observed recently in 2022 and 2023. The population would even decrease slightly from 2025 to 2026, according to the low- and medium-growth scenarios. In all scenarios, however, migratory increase would be the key driver of population growth in Canada, continuing a trend observed since the early 1990s.

Population aging would continue regardless of the projection scenario considered. The share of older adults aged 65 and older within the total population would also continue to increase for Canada as a whole, as well as in all provinces and territories.

In addition, according to the medium-growth scenario, the population aged 85 and older in Canada would more than double over the period from 2031 to 2051, from 1.2 million to 2.8 million. This rapid growth would be a result of the baby-boom generation (born between 1946 and 1965) reaching this oldest age group.

Finally, all scenarios show an increase in the demographic weight of Alberta and a decrease in Newfoundland and Labrador, Quebec and Yukon from 2024 to 2049. Elsewhere, results vary according to the scenario chosen, mainly depending on interprovincial migration assumptions. For example, the demographic weight of Atlantic provinces other than Newfoundland and Labrador could increase from 2024 to 2049 in a scenario involving the continuation of recent trends.

Products

The results of the population projections for Canada (2024 to 2074), provinces and territories (2024 to 2049) are available in two tables: 17-10-0057-01 (population counts) and 17-10-0058-01 (components of population growth). They can also be consulted using a new interactive data visualization tool, Population Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories: Interactive Dashboard (Catalogue number71-607-X).

A short analytical document, Population Projections for Canada (2024 to 2074), Provinces and Territories (2024 to 2049) (Catalogue number91-520-X), is also available.

The publication Population Projections for Canada (2024 to 2074), Provinces and Territories (2024 to 2049): Technical Report on Methodology and Assumptions (Catalogue number91-620-X), which provides information on the methods and assumptions underlying the projections, is also available.

Contact information

For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact us (toll-free 1-800-263-1136; 514-283-8300; infostats@statcan.gc.ca) or Media Relations (statcan.mediahotline-ligneinfomedias.statcan@statcan.gc.ca).