Living with COVID-19 in Canada in 2022

Released: 2022-03-10

COVID-19 continues to impact the social and economic lives of Canadians, with approximately 132,000 hospitalizations and more than 35,000 deaths to date. More than 30 million Canadians are now fully vaccinated against the virus. With the emergence of the highly transmissible Omicron variant, Canadians continue to adapt to the challenges and risks associated with COVID-19, but may do so in a different way going forward as public health restrictions begin to lift across the country.

A new presentation, COVID-19 in Canada: A Two-year Update on Social and Economic Impacts, provides an integrated summary of recent developments at the COVID-19 pandemic's two-year mark. This presentation reviews selected social and economic impacts of the pandemic, highlighting potential longer-term challenges moving forward. This presentation updates and extends the analysis presented in COVID-19 in Canada: Year-end Update on Social and Economic Impacts, released in December 2021. Additional data products and analyses related to the pandemic are found at COVID-19: a data perspective.

The direct and unintended health impact of the pandemic will continue to affect the well-being of Canadians. More than 26,000 excess deaths have occurred in Canada from March 2020 to mid-October 2021, nearly 5.8% more than would be expected if there were no pandemic. Declines in self-reported mental health have yet to recovery to pre-pandemic levels, with women being further impacted than men. Other health impacts will be felt for a long time, with modelling projections suggesting that a six-month delay in colon cancer screening could increase cases and deaths by thousands over the next 30 years.

The pandemic has impacted public safety and social cohesion across the country. Early on in the pandemic, two-fifths of Canadians reported being very or extremely concerned about the possibility of civil disorder. Those concerns doubled among those who expected that the pandemic would impact their finances, compared with those who anticipated it would not. Recent protests against vaccine mandates and pandemic restrictions highlight growing division among Canadians, which may have serious long-term social cohesion ramifications.

Canada's experienced sudden demographic changes during the pandemic. In 2020, natural population increases (births minus deaths) fell to their lowest level since 1922, which, coupled with sharp declines in international migration, led population growth to slow to levels not seen since the First World War. New data from the 2021 Census of Population show that, despite 2020, Canada's population grew at almost twice the pace of other G7 countries over the last five year, largely from high levels of immigration. Population growth is set to increase as immigration numbers are recovering to pre-pandemic levels.

High inflation coupled with modest wage gains are putting more stress on pocketbooks. Headline consumer inflation hit a 30-year high of 5.1% in January 2022, as prices for food and shelter continued to rise steadily. Grocery prices in January 2022 rose at their fastest yearly pace since 2009. Consumer inflation has outpaced wage growth since the spring of 2021. Average hourly wages, adjusted for changes in employment composition due to the pandemic, were up 2.7% on a year-over-year basis in January 2022. Unadjusted for these changes, average hourly wages were up 2.4%.

According to the Bank's Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (fourth quarter of 2021), Canadians expect that high inflation will persist over 2022 and 2023, while workers anticipate more modest increases in wages. Statistics Canada's Canadian Survey of Business Conditions (first quarter of 2022) indicates that more than one-third of businesses expect to raise prices over the next three months, up from just over one-quarter of businesses in the fourth quarter of 2021.

Sharply increasing housing prices across much of the country, coupled with the prospect of higher borrowing costs, will continue to place severe strains on housing affordability. Homebuilders in a majority of census metropolitan areas reported double digit increases in home prices during 2021, while the Canadian Real Estate Agency's Multiple Listing Service home price index was up 26.6% in December 2021. Financial barriers to homeownership may have lasting impacts on social and economic mobility, especially for new Canadians and younger families. For many families, homeownership is the foundation for wealth creation. On a per-household basis, homeowners have seen their net wealth rise by more than $260,000 since the start of the pandemic, while renters have seen gains of $50,000.

Labour market conditions improved markedly during the second half of 2021, including for many sociodemographic groups disproportionately impacted by lockdown measures at the beginning of the pandemic. Employment conditions among newcomers and racialized communities, who are more likely to work in high-contact occupations, improved during the second half of 2021. At the end of the year, the employment rate among visible minority Canadians, at 70.9%, was 4 percentage points higher than in December 2020, with large increases among South Asian and Black Canadians. Similarly, the share of very recent core-aged immigrants working in December 2021 was almost 8% higher than in December 2019.

Improvements in job quality are set to be an important issue for many workers going forward. In January 2022, visible minorities (8.5%) were more likely than non-visible minorities (6.7%) to report that they were planning to leave their job in the next 12 months and to cite low pay as their main reason for doing so.

Despite these improvements, labour market imbalances will persist as employers and workers continue to adjust. The demand for workers accelerated to record levels during the second half of 2021. Job vacancies in the third quarter were up more than 60% from pre-pandemic levels, reflecting increases in all provinces and most industrial sectors. To attract workers, businesses have adjusted hiring strategies such as lowering educational requirements and raising wages. From November 2019 to November 2021, wages among new hires have risen by 10% compared with 6.4% for established employees. In the fourth quarter of 2021, almost half of businesses reported that they planned to raise wages for existing employees over the coming year, while one-quarter planned to increase wages offered to new employees.

Longer lasting impacts of the pandemic are likely to exacerbate existing inequalities. About 40% of Canadians hold permanent, pandemic-resilient jobs that are less likely to be impacted by automation (so-called "triple-protected" jobs). Higher paid, more educated workers are far more likely to hold these jobs. Couples in the top 10% of the earnings distribution were about 20 times more likely to have both spouses in a triple-protected job than couples in the bottom 10%. Challenges persist for lower-paying, high-contact jobs. While total employment in Canada recovered by September 2021, employment levels in accommodation and food services remained more than 200,000 below pre-pandemic levels in December 2021, before Omicron-related restrictions contributed to additional losses of 113,000 in January 2022.

As emergency measures and support programs wind down, financial uncertainties will deepen for many Canadian businesses. Emergency programs have been a lifeline for Canadian businesses throughout the pandemic. Business insolvencies remain below the pre-pandemic level, but have risen by more than one-third in the fourth quarter of 2021. During this time, one-third of businesses reported that the absence of government support programs would have a medium to high impact on their survival over the next 12 months. Overall, 15% of businesses reported that it would be a major challenge to pay off funding received from repayable government loans over the next year. Rising input costs, uncertain revenue streams, and elevated vacancies form the next hurdles for many businesses over the coming months.

Products

The product "COVID-19 in Canada: A Two-year Update on Social and Economic Impacts" is now available as part of A Presentation Series from Statistics Canada About the Economy, Environment and Society (Catalogue number11-631-X).

Contact information

For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact us (toll-free 1-800-263-1136; 514-283-8300; infostats@statcan.gc.ca) or Media Relations (statcan.mediahotline-ligneinfomedias.statcan@statcan.gc.ca).