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Experimental New Condominium Apartment Price Index, fourth quarter 2018

Released: 2019-05-02

Experimental New Condominium Apartment Price Index

Fourth quarter 2018

2.3% increase

(quarterly change)

Prices for new condominium apartments for the six census metropolitan area (CMA) composite rose 2.3% in the fourth quarter, following a 3.0% increase in the third quarter.

This marked the second consecutive quarterly increase in the six-CMA level index, in the wake of higher interest rates, albeit still at historically low levels, and the introduction of mortgage stress-tests in early 2018.

Toronto and Victoria post the largest quarterly increases

In the fourth quarter, prices rose in Toronto and Victoria (both up 3.0%) for the eighth straight quarter. The new condominium market in Vancouver (+2.2%) rose for the second consecutive quarter. Prices in Vancouver declined in the first half of 2018, following an increase in the foreign buyer's tax in February 2018.

Prices declined in Ottawa (-1.5%) and in Calgary (-3.6%) in the fourth quarter. Prices in Montréal have remained stable for the past two quarters.

Chart 1  Chart 1: Toronto and Victoria post the largest quarterly increases
Toronto and Victoria post the largest quarterly increases

Prices down sharply in Calgary year over year

New condominium apartment prices for the six-CMA composite increased by 3.1% over the 12-month period ending in the fourth quarter. On a year-over-year basis, prices have risen for four consecutive quarters. In the six CMAs, housing starts for apartment-style buildings, as reported by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, increased by 1.4% year over year in the fourth quarter.

Prices continue to decline in Calgary (-14.0%) year over year. While prices are recovering in Vancouver on a quarterly basis, the market has cooled since the fourth quarter of 2017 (-1.1%). Montréal reported its second consecutive year-over-year decline in the fourth quarter.

Chart 2  Chart 2: Experimental new condominium apartment price indexes
Experimental new condominium apartment price indexes

  Note to readers

The Experimental New Condominium Apartment Price Index (NCAPI) is a quarterly series that measures changes over time in the contractors' selling prices of units in new condominium apartment buildings, where detailed specifications pertaining to each unit remain comparable between two consecutive periods. The index is available for six census metropolitan areas (CMAs): Montréal, Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver and Victoria, as well as an average for the six CMAs.

The index methods and data sources continue to be explored and tested in order to increase the sample size, particularly in Ottawa, Vancouver and Victoria; to enhance the questionnaire to more accurately capture premiums and discounts for various quality characteristics; and to refine the editing, imputation and hedonic modelling processes. For these reasons, the indexes are considered experimental at this time.

The data has been revised back to the first quarter of 2018 to incorporate improved methodologies that have been put in place since the last release. The index is not seasonally adjusted.

Next NCAPI Release

First quarter 2019 data for the Experimental NCAPI will be released on June 24.

Products

For more information, consult the article "Explore new experimental data on residential property prices," now available in the StatCan Blog.

Contact information

For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact us (toll-free 1-800-263-1136; 514-283-8300; STATCAN.infostats-infostats.STATCAN@canada.ca) or Media Relations (613-951-4636; STATCAN.mediahotline-ligneinfomedias.STATCAN@canada.ca).

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