Leading indicators

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November 2011 (Previous release)

The composite leading index increased 0.8% in November, the largest increase in five months. Manufacturing posted broad gains after slowing in recent months. Household spending was mixed, while the stock market continued to decline.

Composite leading indicator

Chart description: Composite leading indicator

All three manufacturing components increased. New orders for durable goods recovered 4.1% from a 5.8% decline the month before. The ratio of shipments to inventories rose after five consecutive monthly declines, as sales strengthened while inventories levelled off. The average workweek lengthened for a second month in a row.

Some of the pick-up in manufacturing reflects signs of improvement in the United States economy. Its leading indicator rose 0.5%, led by building permits and a recovery of consumer confidence.

In Canada, the housing index fell 1.5%, as a retreat in housing starts outweighed an increase in house sales. Furniture and appliance sales fell, while spending on other durable goods remained buoyant.

Available on CANSIM: table 377-0003.

Definitions, data sources and methods: survey number 1601.

This release will be reprinted in the January 2012 issue of Canadian Economic Observer, Vol. 25, no. 1 (11-010-X, free). For more information on the economy, consult the Canadian Economic Observer.

For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Philip Cross (613-951-9162; ceo@statcan.gc.ca), Current Economic Analysis Group.

Table 1 Leading indicators