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The composite leading index edged down 0.1% in September, its first decrease since April 2009. Half of the 10 components rose and half decreased. The housing index continued to post the largest declines. Manufacturing, which had supported growth since the spring even as housing slowed, saw two of its three components turn down.
Housing continued to slow household spending. The housing index fell by about 4% for the third straight month, with declines in both starts and sales. The slowdown in housing was reflected in a third straight drop in furniture and appliance sales. However, spending on other durable goods rose for the second month in a row.
In manufacturing, both new orders and the average workweek turned down for the first time this year. New orders are quite volatile on a monthly basis, having risen 5.8% the month before. The shipments to inventory ratio continued to advance slowly but steadily. This was in line with the leading indicator for the United States, which rose 0.2%.
Elsewhere, the Toronto stock market rebounded in September, led by metals and mining. Services employment dipped after three straight gains, due to a setback in personal services.
Available on CANSIM: table 377-0003.
Definitions, data sources and methods: survey number 1601.
This release will be reprinted in the November 2010 issue of Canadian Economic Observer, Vol. 23, no. 11 (11-010-X, free). For more information on the economy, consult the Canadian Economic Observer.
For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Francine Roy (613-951-3627; ceo@statcan.gc.ca), Current Economic Analysis Group.
Table 1
| April 2010 | May 2010 | June 2010 | July 2010 | August 2010 | September 2010 | Last month of data available | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % change | |||||||
| Composite leading indicator (1992=100) | 237.3 | 239.1 | 240.6 | 241.8 | 243.2 | 242.9 | -0.1 |
| Housing index (1992=100)1 | 138.9 | 136.5 | 132.9 | 128.0 | 123.1 | 119.2 | -3.2 |
| Business and personal services employment ('000) | 2,959 | 2,954 | 2,966 | 2,974 | 2,987 | 2,985 | -0.1 |
| S&P/TSX stock price index (1975=1,000) | 11,744 | 11,747 | 11,787 | 11,804 | 11,779 | 11,811 | 0.3 |
| Money supply, M1 ($ millions, 1992)2 | 214,194 | 215,511 | 216,766 | 217,709 | 218,589 | 219,754 | 0.5 |
| U.S. Conference Board leading indicator (1992=100)3 | 130.3 | 131.2 | 131.9 | 132.5 | 132.9 | 133.1 | 0.2 |
| Manufacturing | |||||||
| Average workweek (hours) | 36.6 | 36.7 | 36.7 | 36.7 | 36.7 | 36.6 | -0.3 |
| New orders, durables ($ millions, 1992)4 | 21,203 | 21,989 | 22,412 | 23,078 | 24,412 | 23,940 | -1.9 |
| Shipments/inventories of finished goods4 | 1.80 | 1.84 | 1.87 | 1.90 | 1.91 | 1.92 | 0.015 |
| Retail trade | |||||||
| Furniture and appliance sales ($ millions, 1992)4 | 2,930 | 2,957 | 2,969 | 2,951 | 2,938 | 2,916 | -0.7 |
| Other durable goods sales ($ millions, 1992)4 | 10,022 | 9,979 | 9,931 | 9,888 | 9,993 | 10,078 | 0.9 |
| Unsmoothed composite leading indicator | 243.2 | 242.8 | 240.7 | 243.4 | 245.9 | 241.8 | -1.7 |
