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The composite leading index fell by 0.1% in June, after the rate of decline had slowed markedly from 1.0% in April to 0.1% in May. In June, 4 of 10 components rose, the same number as in May. Housing and the stock market continued to post the largest gains, while all the manufacturing components declined.
The housing index advanced by 4.9%, led by the recovery of existing home sales. The other components of household demand continued to decline, although at a much slower rate than at the turn of the year. New motor vehicle sales have risen 8.0% since December, led by higher demand for trucks.
The growth of the real money supply continued to moderate, to 0.4%. It was expanding by 1.7% at its peak in January, when it was the only one of the 10 components that increased significantly.
All three manufacturing components declined. Shipments fell faster than inventories, even before further cuts in the auto industry in May. The average workweek turned down again, after a string of five straight declines was interrupted in May.
One positive sign for exports was an increase in the leading indicator for the United States, its first advance since the credit crisis began in August 2007. Healthier financial markets and rising consumer confidence led the advance.
Available on CANSIM: table 377-0003.
Definitions, data sources and methods: survey number 1601.
This release will be reprinted in the August 2009 issue of Canadian Economic Observer, Vol. 22, no. 8 (11-010-X, free). For more information on the economy, consult the Canadian Economic Observer.
For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Philip Cross (613-951-9162; ceo@statcan.gc.ca), Current Economic Analysis Group.
Table 1
| January 2009 | February 2009 | March 2009 | April 2009 | May 2009 | June 2009 | Last month of data available | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % change | |||||||
| Composite leading indicator (1992=100) | 222.1 | 218.9 | 215.8 | 213.7 | 213.4 | 213.1 | -0.1 |
| Housing index (1992=100)1 | 109.6 | 101.4 | 97.6 | 96.5 | 97.7 | 102.5 | 4.9 |
| Business and personal services employment ('000) | 2,932 | 2,923 | 2,917 | 2,914 | 2,914 | 2,905 | -0.3 |
| S&P/TSX stock price index (1975=1,000) | 9,694 | 8,968 | 8,759 | 8,770 | 9,047 | 9,383 | 3.7 |
| Money supply, M1 ($ millions, 1992)2 | 185,011 | 187,580 | 189,656 | 191,640 | 193,057 | 193,911 | 0.4 |
| US Conference Board leading indicator (1992=100)3 | 121.2 | 120.7 | 120.1 | 119.7 | 119.7 | 120.0 | 0.3 |
| Manufacturing | |||||||
| Average workweek (hours) | 36.9 | 36.7 | 36.5 | 36.3 | 36.4 | 36.3 | -0.3 |
| New orders, durables ($ millions, 1992)4 | 27,812 | 26,583 | 23,728 | 21,930 | 19,315 | 17,630 | -8.7 |
| Shipments/inventories of finished goods4 | 1.73 | 1.69 | 1.64 | 1.60 | 1.58 | 1.56 | -0.025 |
| Retail trade | |||||||
| Furniture and appliance sales ($ millions, 1992)4 | 2,966 | 2,940 | 2,917 | 2,883 | 2,851 | 2,826 | -0.9 |
| Other durable goods sales ($ millions, 1992)4 | 9,587 | 9,387 | 9,355 | 9,246 | 9,184 | 9,170 | -0.2 |
| Unsmoothed composite leading indicator | 217.2 | 211.4 | 210.2 | 211.3 | 216.8 | 215.5 | -0.6 |
