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The Daily. Wednesday, May 24, 2000
During the 1990s, Canada suffered a net loss of skilled workers to the United States in several key knowledge-based occupations, according to an analysis of the migration of knowledge workers into and out of Canada.
The magnitude of the loss was relatively small - about 0.1% of all taxfilers in 1996, and less than 1% of the stock of workers in any specific knowledge occupation.
Even so, the number of people leaving Canada for the United States and other countries grew steadily during the 1990s. In addition, these individuals tended to be better-educated than the population as a whole, and they were higher-income earners and individuals of prime working age.
While evidence indicates that Canada suffers from a brain drain to the United States, the issue is far more complex than first appears. Losses of highly skilled workers to the United States accelerated during the 1990s, but so too did the influx of highly skilled workers into Canada from abroad.
Canada gained four university graduates from abroad for every one it lost to the United States. As many immigrants entered Canada with a master's degree or doctorate as university graduates at all levels left for the United States.
Recent immigrant high-technology workers made an important contribution to meeting the rapidly growing demand in the high-technology sector. Immigrants in the 1990s accounted for about one-third of the increase in employment among computer engineers, systems analysts and computer programmers.
The movement of workers to the United States has not been large. However, evidence suggests that it has shifted toward more highly-skilled workers who are young, well-educated and well-paid.
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Estimates place annual average emigration, both permanent and temporary, to the United States during the 1990s in a range of 22,000 to 35,000. This represented about 0.1% of the Canadian population, a lower rate than Canada has experienced historically. Nevertheless, evidence does suggest that emigration to the United States increased steadily during the 1990s.
In addition, individuals who moved to the United States were better educated than both the Canadian-born population and recent immigrants to Canada. Forty-nine percent of migrants to the United States between 1994 and 1999 aged 16 and over had a university degree. This compares with 12% among Canadian-born people and 21% among immigrants who arrived during the 1990s, according to the 1996 Census.
Those who moved also had higher incomes. Analysis of income tax data on taxfilers leaving Canada to all destinations showed that individuals earning more than $150,000 a year were seven times as likely to leave Canada as the average taxpayer. Those who had incomes between $100,000 and $150,000 were five times as likely to move.
Taxfilers who left Canada represented 0.9% of those reporting income of over $150,000, and close to 0.6% of those with incomes between $100,000 and $150,000.
In addition, according to taxfiler data, individuals who left in 1996 were disproportionately in the 25-to-44 age group - at entry and mid-career levels - compared with the population as a whole. This group comprised about two-thirds of all emigrants.
In 1996, 10 industries accounted for more than one-fifth of the nearly 27,000 taxfilers who left Canada. These industries included hospitals, university education, and elementary and secondary education. Also in the top 10 was a cluster of high-technology industries, including engineering, computer services, and communications and other electronic equipment. Movers appeared to be concentrated in knowledge-intensive industrial sectors.
In the public sector, outflows have been highest among people employed by hospitals, universities and other educational institutions, and government. In the private sector, outflows have been largest in high technology, finance, and business services.
While losses of highly skilled workers to the United States accelerated during the 1990s, so too did the influx of highly skilled workers into Canada.
Canada received far more university graduates than it has lost to the United States. Individuals who moved to the United States were more than twice as likely to hold a university degree than were immigrants to Canada. However, because of the greater overall number of immigrants, there were four times as many university graduates entering Canada from abroad as there were university degree holders of all levels leaving for the United States.
According to the 1996 Census, about 39,000 degree holders entered Canada annually, both permanently and temporarily, from 1990 to 1996, including 11,000 master's degree holders and PhDs. This compares with a total of about 10,000 university graduates at all levels leaving for the United States each year in the 1990s.
Knowledge-based occupations saw large increases in permanent immigration from the mid-1980s until 1997, the most recent year for which data are available. During this period, permanent immigration increased 15-fold among computer scientists, 10-fold among engineers, eight-fold among natural scientists, and four-fold among managerial workers. In 1997, the combined immigration of people intending to work as computer scientists, engineers, and natural scientists surpassed 20,000.
Recent immigrants were twice as likely as the Canadian-born population to be working as computer scientists and engineers, and in natural sciences.
Between 1991 and 1996, employment of computer engineers, systems analysts and computer programmers grew from 124,000 to 163,000. Immigrants who arrived since 1990 accounted for almost one-third of this increase of 39,000. Recent immigrants have clearly become an important component of high-technology employment expansion and they are contributing to meeting the high demand for workers in this sector.
An analysis of earnings showed an initial period of adjustment in which earnings of immigrant computer scientists were below those of their Canadian-born counterparts. However, the projected lifetime earnings of immigrant computer scientists were only 1% below those of their Canadian-born counterparts.
The May 2000 issue of Education quarterly review (81-003-XPB, $21/$68; 81-003-XIE, $16/$51) is now available. See How to order publications. The study on the brain drain is available as a free preview article of this publication on the In depth page of Statistics Canada's Web site (www.statcan.ca).
For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact John Zhao (613-951-1531; john.zhao@statcan.gc.ca), Centre for Education Statistics.