The Daily. Thursday, February 21, 2002

Retail trade

Retailers posted their third consecutive monthly gain in December; sales reached $25.0 billion, up 1.6% from November. This follows sales increases of 1.3% in November and 2.1% in October.

Retail sales remained essentially flat from April to October, except for a significant 1.7% decline in September, partly related to the events of September 11. Before the spring of 2001, retailers enjoyed rising sales since the summer of 1998, except for a pause in the second half of 2000.

Despite signs of an economic slowdown in 2001, retailers reported a 4.5% annual advance in sales from 2000, when sales increased 6.2%. In constant dollars, the 2001 sales gain was 2.7% compared with 4.4% in 2000.

Strong holiday season for most retailers

Consumers increased their spending in all retail sectors in December. The furniture sector led, jumping 3.9%. Sales in the furniture sector came back strongly in the last few months of 2001, after a period of essentially flat sales in the first half of the year. Retailers in sectors such as automotive (+2.0%), general merchandise (+1.8%), clothing (+1.6%) and food (+1.1%) also reported strong sales gains. However, December's increase in food store sales came mostly from higher prices of fresh vegetables and fresh fruits.

Furniture and drug stores were top performers in 2001

Despite slow growth in the first half of 2001, sales in furniture stores were back on a strong upward trend by the end of the year. Sales in furniture stores advanced 7.9% in 2001 from 2000. Although this was weaker than the gains in the previous four years, when sales increases ranged from 8.0% to 11.0%, furniture stores led all other retailers in 2001.

Note to readers Estimates from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey are classified according to the 1980 Standard Industrial Classification. At the end of every calendar year, seasonally adjusted monthly figures are revised to equal the sum of the unadjusted estimates. Revised seasonally adjusted figures are presented this month for September to November 2001. The complete revision of seasonally adjusted data for 2001 will be released in April. All annual comparisons in this release use the sum of unadjusted monthly estimates. As usual, the rest of the analysis is based on seasonally adjusted estimates.

As in 2000, credit incentives and a strong housing market continued to stimulate sales in furniture stores in 2001. Furthermore, home electronic novelties, such as DVD players, flat-screen televisions and video games may have contributed to higher holiday sales in the fourth quarter. Also, the events of September 11 may have magnified a possible cocooning effect, stimulating home entertainment purchases.

Retail sales by sector

In 2001, drug stores gained 7.2%, their strongest annual sales increase since 1993. Higher prices for medicinal and pharmaceutical products (+3.0% in 2001) contributed to the higher sales seen in drug stores. Prescription and over-the-counter drugs, as well as vitamins and herbal remedies, account for about two-thirds of all sales in drug stores. Drug store sales have increased rapidly since the spring of 2000, after rising slowly in 1998 and 1999.

Much weaker gains in remaining sectors

In 2001, most retail sectors showed annual sales increases below the 4.5% overall gain in retail trade. Retailers in sectors such as general merchandise, clothing, automotive, food and other retail reported sales increases between 3.6% and 4.4%.

Sales in food stores advanced 4.4% in 2001, the largest increase in four years. Higher prices of fresh produce in 2001, such as fruit (+11.6%), meat (+8.6%) and vegetables (+7.5%) have contributed significantly to the higher sales. These products account for about one-quarter of all sales in food stores. Food store sales are affected by a number of factors, such as prices, consumer preferences, the mixture of non-food goods sold and population growth.

Automotive sector sales advanced 4.1% in 2001, about one-half the gain seen in 2000 and the third weakest in 10 years. Within the sector, retailers of automotive parts, accessories and services (+5.4%) and motor and recreational vehicle dealers (+5.0%) posted similar advances, but sales in gasoline service stations remained flat (+0.1%).

Sales by motor and recreational vehicle dealers accelerated in the fourth quarter of 2001, up 7.3% from the third. This was the largest quarterly gain in four years. Aggressive financing programs were introduced in November to stimulate sales of new motor vehicles which had remained essentially flat since April 2001. While the total number of new motor vehicles sold in 2001 was up 0.7% from 2000, until October year-to-date sales had remained below 2000 levels. In fact, cumulative sales from January to October 2001 were 1.3% lower than those in the same period of 2000.

Sales by gasoline service stations remained unchanged in 2001 (+0.1%) after increasing 24.2% in 2000. Gasoline prices at the pump remained the factor most responsible for rises and falls in sales figures. Prices fell 2.6% in 2001, after jumping 21.9% in 2000. Sales by gasoline service stations started to rise rapidly in March 1999 up to the end of 2000, but have been falling ever since.

Retailers in the clothing sector posted a 4.0% sales increase in 2001. Clothing retailers enjoyed strong sales gains in the fourth quarter of 2001 (+3.8%) after experiencing essentially flat sales for most of the year. The only exception was April's 4.2% sales jump which coincided with the opening of several new high-traffic clothing stores.

Continuing a trend observed since the early 1990s, other clothing stores led all other types of stores included in the sector. Retailers classified in other clothing stores sell a variety of women's, men's and children's clothing. Sales in these stores increased 7.5% in 2001, while they advanced 3.2% in women's clothing stores and fell 5.6% in men's clothing stores. Shoe stores posted a weak 0.3% gain in sales.

Retailers in the general merchandise sector experienced a 3.6% sales increase in 2001, their weakest annual gain in eight years. While sales in department stores jumped 7.1%, other general merchandise stores included in the sector suffered a 0.9% decline in sales. The re-opening of several department stores at the end of 2000 partly explains the important jump seen in 2001 sales. Sales in other general merchandise stores have been falling since the start of 2001.

Retail sales growth strongest in the west and north

Advancing at twice the national rate, Alberta (+9.1%) and the Northwest Territories (+9.1%) posted the strongest sales growth of all provinces and territories in 2001.

Alberta has been leading the country in retail sales growth in 2000 and 2001. While all retail sectors posted significant gains in 2001, sales advances in furniture stores and drug stores reached levels slightly above 12.0%. Retailers in Alberta have experienced strong sales increases since the start of 1999.

Retail sales in Newfoundland and Labrador rose 8.5% in 2001, the strongest gain since 1988. Consumer spending was particularly strong in drug, automotive, food and general merchandise stores. Despite this strong annual performance by Newfoundland and Labrador retailers, sales flattened out in the second part of 2001 after advancing rapidly from January to June. Most retailers were affected by this recent slowdown in retail spending.

Retail sales by province and territory

Manitoba (+5.8%) and British Columbia (+5.7%) also posted retail sales increases above the national average in 2001. Furniture stores and drug stores were among the top performers in both provinces. Advancing at an annual rate of about 8.0%, the automotive sector was also a major contributor to Manitoba's performance in 2001. Retail sales have been advancing since mid-1999 in Manitoba, despite two periods of flat sales. In British Columbia, retailers have been experiencing sales increases since the start of 1999, except for a period of falling sales in the summer of 2001.

Quebec retailers posted a 4.3% sales increase in 2001, just below the national average. Furniture stores (+9.0%) led all other retail activities in 2001. Strong gains in overall retail sales in the fourth quarter of 2001 offset the declines seen in the spring and summer of that year.

After advancing at a rate of about 7.0% in the previous four years, retail sales in Ontario rose 2.9% in 2001. Job losses in the manufacturing and high-technology industries contributed to the relatively weak performance by Ontario's retailers. However, after posting weak increases since the middle of 2000, retailers reported sales gains in the fourth quarter of 2001 (+2.6%).

Related indicators for January

After remaining essentially flat throughout 2001, total employment rose a significant 0.5% in January from December. Housing starts jumped 17.3% in January from December, continuing the high level of activity seen in 2001. According to sources in the automotive sector, the number of new motor vehicles sold in January fell slightly from the previous month. Higher gasoline prices at the pump returned in January (+2.5%) after three consecutive monthly declines.

Available on CANSIM: tables 080-0001 to 080-0005.

The December 2001 issue of Retail trade (63-005-XIB, $16/$155) will be available soon.

To order data, or for general information, contact Client Services (1-877-421-3067; 613-951-3549; retailinfo@statcan.gc.ca). To enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Michael Scrim (613-951-5668; michael.scrim@statcan.gc.ca), Distributive Trades Division.

Retail sales

Retail sales